Thursday, October 6, 2011

Let's See, What Can We Ask In Exchange For Our Vote?

No matter public pretenses, the European bailouts hinge on Germany's support.  The Germans, however, given their History, like to pretend that the EFSF is a European endeavor, which also suits the French who like to pretend they are Germany's equal partner even if the credit market says they are not.

The consequence of this elaborate theater piece, is that the EFSF is beholden to the whims of all 17 countries in the eurozone.  If one country says no, the EFSF is not unanimous and ceases to be a European endeavor, never mind if the only approval needed is that of the Bundestag.  By our count, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and France, as as actual or potential recipients, are automatic votes, which leaves the process in the hands of smaller, fiscally sound, countries like Finland and Slovakia.

Nothing is free in politics and approving the EFSF can be no exception.  Recently, Finland extracted a collateral concession from Greece in exchange for the approval of their tiny contribution.  Now, it is Slovakia's turn.  Rest assured, though, that the likelihood of a positive vote is high, the advantage of being small is that, unless you are incredibly greedy, the price you extract looks affordable to the other party.

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